Whither the evangelical vote?

Much of the post-election slicing and dicing to tell us what really happened on election day and why centers on the question of what happened to the power of the Evangelical, read "Conservative Christian", voters. Since the Reagan Presidency, at least, when ministers like the Rev. Robertson and the late Rev. Falwell, claimed that the Republican Party was triumphant because of the voter turnout and loyalty of this group, the "Religious Right" has been seen as a core constituency of the GOP, and its social agenda was seen as the bottom-line definition of what America should be.

Now, with the Democratic victories of Tuesday, various theories have been advanced about just why the GOP lost ground and the Dems gained. Some say that Obama cast himself in such a way that he appealed to the evangelicals; some suggest that America repudiated conservative Christian values; some say the economy trumped every other consideration; some say that the "Religious Right" may be down now, but it is not out; some say that the current Republican administration failed to remain true to the "true values".

So, what can we know? From Christianity Today (see: http://blog.christianitytoday.com/ctpolitics/2008/11/the_evangelical.html) comes a report that Obama only received 25% of the evangelical vote, which is about what Kerry got. That does not suggest an evangelical groundswell for the Democrats. A Pew Center report (http://pewforum.org/docs/?DocID=367) confirms that, while the Democratic ticket realized some gains among evangelicals, the largest gains for the Dems were among Catholics and those unaffiliated with any religion. The Pew report also indicates that there was an increase in evangelical voters from 2004 to 2008 of 3%. That suggests this group is still strong.

So, what does all of this mean? Who really knows? I am convinced that the leadership of the evangelicals believes the GOP lost its way during the Bush Presidency and that now is the time to regroup and refocus. In fact, a pre-election story from the LA Times (http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-na-gop28-2008oct28,0,3963149.story) reports:
The social conservatives and moderates who together boosted the Republican Party to dominance have begun a tense battle over the future of the GOP, with social conservatives already moving to seize control of the party's machinery and some vowing to limit John McCain's influence, even if he wins the presidency.

In skirmishes around the country in recent months, evangelicals and others who believe Republicans have been too timid in fighting abortion, gay marriage and illegal immigration have won election to the party's national committee, in preparation for a fight over the direction and leadership of the party.

This will be an on-going story at the intersection of religion and politics.